Aluminum inventory or over one million tons due to Chinese factors becoming a wind vane for the aluminum industry

With the end of the National Day holiday, the trading volume of metal aluminum in the spot market has also become active. However, participants in market trading generally reflect that although the trading volume is gradually increasing, the transaction price is showing signs of falling due to the impact of large inventory.

Before the holiday, the price of aluminum in London was $2110 per ton, and after the holiday, it was also $2107 per ton. The price did not fluctuate significantly. Due to the National Day holiday, there were almost no major changes during the holiday period, and orders were also very few. Now we hope that the country can introduce new policies to increase economic stimulus and boost market demand for basic raw materials. "Manager Wang, who runs the aluminum trade, accepted the China Times The reporter stated during an interview.

As of October 11th, the opening price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 1212 was reported at 15490 yuan/ton, with a peak of 15560 yuan/ton during the day. It closed at 15490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement price. A total of 9836 transactions were made throughout the day, with a decrease in holdings of 1556 to 60610. Overnight, Lun Aluminum steadily declined, falling 2.05% for the fourth consecutive day in late trading to 2007 US dollars per ton.

Chinese factors become a trend indicator

On October 10th, Alcoa, which has been regarded by the market as a barometer of US stock market earnings, released its latest quarterly financial report, which showed that due to various factors such as insufficient demand leading to a drop in aluminum prices and additional expenses, the company had a net loss of $143 million in the third quarter of this fiscal year, equivalent to a loss of 13 cents per share.

From the content of the financial report, the main reason why Alcoa lowered its forecast for global aluminum demand growth in 2012 is that the demand growth rate in China, the world's largest aluminum consumer, has slowed down. The company has lowered its 2012 aluminum demand growth forecast from 7% to 6%.

As is well known, aluminum is the most widely used metal in the world after steel, and the production and processing of everything from airplanes to cans require aluminum as the raw material. However, the price increase of such an industrial product with huge demand far lags behind that of copper and other metals.

In addition, the past industry giants have retreated from their former glory. For example, the old Rusal Aluminum United Company, which is still faltering after debt restructuring three years ago, is now negotiating with the bank to extend the grace period of the agreement. But on the other hand, the achievements made in China's aluminum smelting industry are enough to make Western producers uneasy. According to the International Aluminum Association, in 2000, China only produced 2.8 million tons, with a relatively small market share; Now China has become the decisive force in the market, with a production of 17.8 million tons last year, accounting for 40% of the world's total production.

Regarding this, Xu Hongping, a researcher on non-ferrous metals at Xinhu Futures, believes that Xinjiang Agricultural Sixth Division Aluminum Industry (Shandong Xinfa), Henan Shenhuo Group, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Aluminum Industry (Hunan Shuangpai Aluminum Factory), Dongfang Hope Group, and Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Industry (Sichuan Qiya) are all electrolytic aluminum plants currently under construction in Xinjiang. These newly built and put into operation production areas in the northwest are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang. At the same time, there are approximately 4 million tons under construction and under construction, and the completed and put into operation reached 1.1 million tons in September of this year, which is even larger than the planned. And there are no downstream processing enterprises in Xinjiang